The Four Peak Growth Model

This week is the Super Bowl of eCommerce — Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

BFCM is the biggest revenue peak of the entire year for most DTC (Direct to Consumer) brands. The few exceptions are health and wellness brands that capitalize on the “New Year, New You” trend, and subscription-based brands that rely less on seasonal peak sales.

For normal DTC brands, it is not uncommon for this seasonal peak to generate upwards of 30% of their annual revenue. But as most brand owners and growth marketers know, to be a successful, profitable, business you can’t rely on one annual peak.

You should have at least three, ideally four.

Four Peak Growth Model

DTC growth has gotten hard.

Years ago, brands used to be able to rely on two big sales moments a year, but today, as competition rises, the cost to acquire customers increases, and customer purchasing power is at an all-time low, two peaks are no longer enough. Brands are being forced to create consistent, profitable growth, and it can no longer be done with two big sales a year.

Healthy brands now need four peaks.

What’s a peak

A peak is considered a “high revenue generation month”. You can define this differently, but I like to use 30% more revenue than your monthly average throughout the year.

A two-peak growth model would look something like this:

A four-peak growth model would look something like this:

As you can see, the peaks in the four-peak model are not as drastically different as they are they are in the two-peak model, but let’s talk about why that matters.

How four peaks create more sustainable, healthy, growth

The key metric for growth in any business is cash. Everything else is secondary.

At the end of the day, if the number in your bank account is going up, you are growing, but there are different risk profiles with different strategies. For example, a two-peak growth model carries significantly more risk than the four-peak method.

Let me explain using the graph below:

As you can see (sorry if it’s small on mobile), in both scenarios they spent the same amount and made the same amount of revenue, but in the example with four, smaller, revenue peaks, the brand was able to stay positive throughout the majority of the year.

More importantly, they weren’t relying on two months to drive significantly more revenue.

Talk about mitigating risk!

I’m not going to go into the business application any further, but if you’re interested in learning more about building four peaks as a brand, you can read this article by Common Thread Collective.

Personal Growth Defaults to Two Peaks

You may not realize it, but life is cyclical, and we often build our annual goals around peaks and seasons as well.

Like in business, the default tendency is to build a two-peak growth model. The problem is that while the currency of business is cash the currency of personal growth is momentum.

And like in business, having a two-peak growth strategy doesn’t cut it.

Here’s a couple of examples:

Let’s think about health and fitness.

Many of us make new years resolutions to get in shape, lose weight, or tackle some fitness goal. We work hard and build momentum, but many of us fall off until summer is approaching.

Once summer is on the horizon, we kickstart our health habits again and try and get in shape for beach season.

After summer, we hit the holidays when many eat, drink, and let health slide to the back burner.

This is a two-peak growth model!

The problem…. anyone who has approached health and fitness with a two-peak growth model knows that over time it doesn’t work. You get heavier not fitter.

One more example, rest and relaxation.

Do you remember your childhood vacations?

Many of us went on a big summer trip with our families and vividly remember seeing friends and family for the holidays. Covid has changed this trend somewhat by introducing more flexible working situations, but generally speaking, we still take vacations following a two-peak model:

1. Big summer vacations

2. Time off at the end of the year

The result is often getting burned out during the other times of the year and ultimately using your vacation to decompress rather than for enjoyment.

These are just two examples, but we build two peak models all across our entire lives.

Four Peak Personal Growth

Before diving into specifics, I want to give a shout-out to one cohort of individuals who do this really well - athletes, and specifically runners.

Praising runners might also give you a good tangible example of a Four Peak Growth Model.

Runners often break their training into cycles with three to four peak race events each year. While it changes by runner, it’s usually some mid-distance event in the late winter/spring, a speed event before and after summer, and then a big volume event towards late fall.

Here’s an example of two runners I follow sharing their goals for 2025 on X:

Both are building their calendars around multiple peaks throughout the year.

(side note, both @Brady and @Danny are awesome people to follow)

This framework is how these runners, and many more like them have been able to become such proficient and fast runners. It’s the same way some of the top brands and businesses in the world have been able to grow year after year.

Four peaks.

Build Four Peaks in Your 2025 Growth Map

We are coming to the end of 2024, which means it’s time to start planning for your 2025 goals.

I will be sharing my yearly planning template in the coming weeks where we get past the macro level of planning and start mapping out the micro plans. But for now, I want to leave you with something actionable to work on this week.

I want you to spend some time thinking about your four peaks for 2025.

What are the four “big events” you want to build up to and use to mark your growth next year? Maybe it is a race, maybe it is an anniversary trip, or maybe its a job change or big purchase.

The one caveat, is these aren’t processes! This isn’t “how you’ll accomplish them” its what are they.

i.e. (this year I did an Ironman 70.3 in May. That was a peak, not the training block).

To do this, answer these three questions.

Determining your annual peaks for 2025:

1. What big things do I want to accomplish or achieve in 2025?

2. When does it make sense to do them?

3. Do I have enough time in between each of them?

For me, I’ve got my big peaks laid out, but still need to think through the micro level. Here they are:

1. Hyrox Miami - April 2025

2. Summer Abroad - June/July 2025 (3-4 weeks somewhere)

3. Loggerhead Triathlon Weekend - August/Sept 2025

4. Purchase another property - TBD

How you’ll benefit from a Four Peak Growth Model

The benefits a Four Peak Growth Model has for a business apply to you as an individual as well. Before closing, I want to leave you with three key benefits you’ll take away from designing your annual calendar like this.

1. Build momentum

   The currency of personal growth is momentum. By building four peaks into your calendar you’ll be able to stay more consistent which will ultimately increase your rate of growth

2. Avoid risk, burnout, stress, and injury

   When you have fewer peaks, there is more pressure on them. A good example of this is physical training. If you only train twice a year you’ll get hurt. If you only diet twice a year you have to diet harder. Four peaks lower the stakes and make growth a lot easier

3. Builds intentionality and a lifestyle by design

   Have you ever heard the phrase “if you don’t choose a life one will be assigned to you”? That is the reality when we don’t take charge in designing our own lives. By intentionally building your calendar around core events, you get to determine what your life and year will look like, regardless of the hardships it may bring.

That’s it for today if you’ve enjoyed this letter, I’d love if you shared with someone using the link below.

Best,

Jon Kalis